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| Governor of Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo |
Cyber Daily News - Bank of Indonesia aware of the three global economic risks that need to
be anticipated and addressed, the slowdown in world economic growth, the
decline in global commodity prices and the decline in capital inflows
to developing countries.
Bank of Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo rate, the global economy in the next year will still be faced with high uncertainty, there is potential for even more complex.
"Uncertainty is not just a source of risk that we have identified (known-unknown), but it can also come from something that has not been thought of before (unknown-unknown)," Agus said the current "Annual Meeting of Bank Indonesia 2015" at JCC Senayan, Jakarta, Tuesday night.
Associated with the global economic growth prospects, continued Agus, although projected to improve to 3.5 per cent, but there is a risk that the projection may be lower.
According to Agus, the risk of a correction will happen if the economic recovery of China and other developing countries are not as expected. That concern is quite reasonable because until now stretching the perceived Chinese economy is still not strong enough.
"The process of rebalancing the Chinese economy of investment to consumption-based economy will take a long time in line with demographic developments are entering aging population. This situation carries the risk of an era of economic growth is lower than that inscribed in the past decade," said Agus.
Meanwhile, related to the decline in commodity prices is expected to continue in the next year in line with the end of the super-cycle in commodity prices.
"This development should continue to be sikapi, as it may further lower Indonesia's exports and hamper economic recovery if we can not break away from dependence on exports of natural resource-based," said Agus.
While the third is related to the risk of global impact that can be caused by the process of the normalization of US monetary policy, both in terms of timing and magnitude of changes in interest rates on the US central bank (Fed Funds Rate).
He said, in line with the normalization process, global financial markets will enter the US dollar liquidity episodes tend to be more stringent that support the strengthening of the US dollar (US Dollar Supercycle).
"We need to be aware of the process of recomposition of portfolio capital by global investors who can distort capital flows out of developing countries," said Agus.
Agus added, in addition to the third risk, of course, Indonesia needs to look at a variety of other global dynamics, including the constellation of global economic policies that lead to efforts to improve the competitiveness of the currency (currency war), which emerged unexpectedly.
"Our experience in 2015, when the risk of such a policy of devaluation of the Chinese Yuan in August 2015 that appear suddenly without warning," said Agus.
